Oil Refining Market Size – By Complexity Level, By Product, By Fuel, By Application, Analysis, Share, Growth Forecast, 2025 - 2034

Oil Refining Market Size

The global oil refining market size was valued at USD 7.2 trillion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% from 2025 to 2034. Rapid industrialization, economic transformation along with rising energy demand, population growth, and improving living standards across developing nations is contributing to the industry growth. Stringent regulations on carbon emissions along with growth in the aviation and road transportation sectors will increase the demand for refined products.
 

Increasing investments in construction, expansion, and upgrades of refineries to meet the growing demand for petroleum products will complement the business landscape. For instance, in November 2024, Saudi Aramco, SINOPEC, and Fujian Petrochemical Company formed a strategic partnership to start the construction of a new integrated refining and petrochemical facility in China's Fujian Province. The complex will feature a refining capacity of 16 million tons annually, along with a 1.5 million tons yearly ethylene production unit. Additional facilities include a two-million-ton paraxylene unit with downstream capabilities and a 300,000-ton crude oil terminal.

Oil Refining Market Trends

The oil refining industry is anticipated to grow owing to increasing oil exploration activities driven by rising energy demands across various industries and sectors along with ongoing urbanization and rising population. Continuous industrial development, shifting consumer focus toward refined petroleum products and ongoing expansion of transportation is accelerating the demand for refined petroleum products further complementing the business landscape. Favorable initiatives by the authorities toward substantial capital allocation toward new refinery establishments, facility modernization projects, and capacity enhancement to address the mounting requirements for various petroleum-based products across different end-use segments will influence the business dynamics.
 

For instance, in October 2024, the U.S. DoE announced that it would purchase 3 million barrels of oil for the Bryan Mound Strategic Reserve facility during 2025. This is the second purchase that the department has made under this acquisition strategy after purchasing 55 million barrels scheduled between April and May 2025. This timing portrays the strategy of the government agency to make the most effective use of taxpayer money by strategically managing oil reserve.
 

Oil Refining Market Analysis

Topping oil segment is anticipated to cross over USD 2.5 trillion by 2034, owing to its effectiveness in breaking down large molecules into smaller ones and converting them into high-value products further augmenting the business landscape. The increasing demand for petrochemical feedstocks and fuels for various industrial processes and operations will contribute to the industry growth.
 

The light distillates segment is anticipated to witness a CAGR of over 1.8% through 2034. Expanding middle-class consumers and their growing incomes together with a surging need for refined products across various sectors such as hospitals, transportation infrastructures, petrochemical manufacturing units, household heating systems, manufacturing plants, and automotive markets will support the market dynamics.
 

The U.S. oil refining market is projected to surpass USD 870 billion by 2034. The ongoing demand for oil products in the developing industrial sphere, accompanied by encouraging policy aimed at reducing the import of foreign oil, serves as a stimulation for the domestic refining industry. The industry outlook is also supported by the significant capital outlays for the enhancement and further development of spectrum of the industry.
 

Supportive measures adopted by the government with regard to the establishing or increasing the operating capacity of refineries together with the further exploration of the unexplored oil reserves will positively impact the business dynamics. For example, Element Fuels Holdings announced in June 2024 that it would build a new oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas. The Dallas-based company, led by John Calce, intends to refine up to 55,000 barrels of naphtha into gasoline per day. The USD 1.2 billion project will seek financing from banks, private investors, and the Department of Energy under the Inflation Reduction Act.
 

Oil Refining Market Share

Industry players across the oil refining industry are focusing to enhance their positions by engaging in new alliances with private players and government coupled with the expansion of their R&D capabilities. The industry landscape has transformed through several strategic acquisitions and partnerships, which are directed toward expansion in market reach and operational capabilities. Companies are undertaking expansion strategies to enhance their footprint across different regions and market segments.
 

Oil Refining Market Companies

Major players operating across the industry include:

• ADNOC
• Bharat Petroleum
• BP
• Chevron
• CNPC
• ExxonMobil
• Fluor
• Hindustan Petroleum
• Indian Oil
• Kuwait Petroleum
• Marathon Petroleum
• PBF Energy
• Phillips 66
• Reliance Industries
• S-Oil
• Saudi Aramco
• Shell
• Valero
   

Oil Refining Industry News

• In November 2024, the Uganda government changed its funding model for its mega oil refinery project from international market financing to full equity funding. According to officials, the project will be fully funded through equity with UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments. The refinery will be built in western Uganda's Hoima District and have a daily capacity of 60,000 barrels. This new funding method supersedes the erstwhile 60:40 debt-to-equity structure as the government commits to complete equity financing for the USD 4 billion project.
   
• In April 2024, Davis Refinery Belfield, North Dakota A new refining facility with capacity of 49,500 barrels per day produces clean transportation fuels. The company secured all needed permits as a Synthetic Minor Source and will feed the facility on regional crude oil supplies. It developed proprietary technologies for small scale refineries under EPA fuel standards. Meridian collaborates with Axens NA to install the Vegan processing technology, accommodates higher Renewable Volume Obligations, and finalizes equipment specifications and module procurement plans.
   

This oil refining market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of “million barrels per day” and “USD Billion” from 2021 to 2034, for the following segments:

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Market, By Complexity Level

• Topping
• Conversion
• Deep conversion

Market, By Product

• Light distillates
• Middle distillates
• Fuel oil
• Others

Market, By Fuel

• Gasoline
• Gasoil
• Kerosene
• LPG
• Others

Market, By Application

• Road transport
• Aviation
• Marine bunker
• Petrochemical
• Other industry
• Residential/Commercial/Agriculture
• Electricity generation
• Rail & domestic

The above information has been provided for the following regions and countries:

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
  • Mexico 
• Europe
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Russia
  • Spain
  • UK
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • South Korea
  • India
  • Singapore
  • Indonesia
• Middle East & Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • Kuwait
  • Egypt
  • South Africa
  • Nigeria
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina