Autonomous Bus Market Size - By Level of Autonomy (Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, Level 4), Fuel (Diesel, Electric, Hybrid), Application (Intercity, Intracity), Growth Prospects, Regional Outlook & Global Forecast, 2023 - 2032

Autonomous Bus Market Size

Autonomous Bus Market size was valued at USD 1.7 billion in 2022 and is estimated to register a CAGR of 19.7% between 2023 and 2032, propelled by the accelerating rate of urbanization and congestion across both developed and developing countries. According to the World Bank, presently, 56% of the global population, equating to 4.4 billion people, reside in urban areas. This urbanization trend is projected to persist, with the urban population is set to grow 1.5 times, reaching 6 billion by 2045. Furthermore, it is expected to more than double the current figure by 2050, at which time nearly 7 out of 10 individuals will call cities their home.
 

As cities become more densely populated, traffic congestion and the need for efficient public transportation solutions increase. Autonomous buses can provide an innovative and flexible approach to address this challenge. They can offer on-demand services, dynamically adapt to traffic conditions, and provide "last-mile" connectivity, which is crucial for solving transportation issues in urban areas.
 

Autonomous buses are often electric or powered by clean energy sources, making them more environmentally friendly than traditional diesel-powered buses. This aligns with government initiatives and consumer preferences for eco-friendly transportation options, further bolstering autonomous bus sales trajectory.
 

However, the development of autonomous bus technology is a complex and costly endeavor. Ensuring the safety of passengers, pedestrians, and other road users is of paramount importance. Any incidents or accidents involving autonomous buses can lead to significant setbacks for the industry. As a result, there is a need for ongoing investment in research and development to improve the safety and reliability of autonomous bus systems, which may slow down market growth.
 

COVID-19 Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a mixed impact on the autonomous bus market. On one hand, the need for reduced human contact and enhanced safety measures has increased interest in autonomous transportation solutions. However, the economic uncertainties and disruptions caused by the pandemic have constrained investment and development in the sector, slowing down the deployment and testing of autonomous bus systems in some regions. The industry is adapting to these challenges as it strives to contribute to a safer and more efficient future of public transportation.
 

Autonomous Bus Market Trends

The accelerating transition from fossil fuel-based mobility toward electric buses will drive the autonomous bus industry over the next ten years. As sustainability becomes a top priority, autonomous buses are likely to shift toward electric and sustainable power sources. This trend aligns with the growing focus on reducing emissions and promoting environmentally friendly public transportation solutions.
 

To that end, bus manufacturers are actively developing electric mobility solutions to ease the global burden of GHG and carbon emissions, boosting the autonomous bus market growth. For instance, in September 2023, Schaeffler and VDL Groep revealed their collaboration to investigate the creation and manufacturing of an advanced autonomous shuttle for public transportation. These two privately owned companies unveiled an initial prototype, alongside showcasing the essential automotive electrification and steering technologies, at the IAA Mobility exhibition in Munich.
 

Autonomous Bus Market Analysis:

Based on level of autonomy, the level 1 segment accounted for 40% of the market share in 2022. Level 1 autonomy, which involves basic driver assistance features like adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping assistance, offers a gradual transition towards full autonomy. Key drivers include increased demand for improved road safety, reduced human error, and greater driver convenience. Additionally, as regulatory frameworks become more accommodating and technology continues to advance, many see Level 1 autonomy as a steppingstone to higher autonomy levels, spurring its adoption in the public transportation sector.
 

Based on application, the intracity segment held over 85% of the autonomous bus market share in 2022. Autonomous buses are gaining popularity in intracity applications due to their potential to revolutionize urban transportation. They offer a solution to the challenges of congestion, pollution, and the need for efficient and sustainable mobility within cities. Autonomous buses can operate with precision and safety, reducing traffic jams and emissions. They provide a cost-effective and reliable means of public transportation, filling the "last mile"s gap, and reducing the dependence on private vehicles. As urban populations continue to grow, autonomous buses offer a practical, eco-friendly, and convenient solution to meet the evolving transportation needs of modern cities.
 

Asia Pacific autonomous bus market size recorded more than 50% of revenue share in 2022. China autonomous bus industry is rapidly expanding due to the country's strong commitment to technological advancement and is investing heavily in autonomous vehicle research and development. The country's vast and growing urban population also demands innovative solutions for public transportation. Moreover, government support and favorable regulatory policies for autonomous vehicles have created a conducive environment for industry growth. Additionally, China's well-established manufacturing infrastructure and a growing market for electric buses align with the autonomous bus sector's development, making it a focal point for industry expansion in the country.
 

Autonomous Bus Market Share

Major companies operating in the autonomous bus industry are:

• AB Volvo
• Apollo Baidu (Baidu, Inc.)
• BYD Co. Ltd.
• Daimler AG
• Easymile
• MAN Truck & Bus
• Navya
• New Flyer (NFI Group)
• Toyota Motor Corporation
• Yutong Group Co. Ltd.

Firms operating in the autonomous bus sector are actively pursuing a variety of strategic endeavors to reinforce their positions in the market. These initiatives involve pioneering advancements in AI and cloud technologies, cultivating strategic alliances, expanding their range of services, and fortifying security measures for data. These actions are aimed at adeptly addressing the dynamic demands of their customer base while concurrently adhering to the evolving landscape of regulatory compliance.
 

Autonomous Bus Industry News

• In May 2023, MAN established a partnership with Mobileye, a company owned by Intel. The initial shared objective of the two companies is to introduce a pilot program for an autonomous city bus, complete with a safety driver, by 2025. This initiative is part of the newly unveiled MINGA research project in Munich.
   

The autonomous bus market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of revenue (USD Million) and shipment (Units) from 2018 to 2032, for the following segments:

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Market, By Level of Autonomy

• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4

Market, By Fuel

• Diesel
• Electric
• Hybrid

Market, By Application

• Intercity
• Intracity

The above information has been provided for the following regions and countries:

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
• Europe
  • UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Switzerland
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • Australia
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Singapore 
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Chile 
• MEA
  • UAE
  • Saudi Arabia