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Based on deliver mode, the captive segment is projected to surpass USD 32 billion by 2032, owing to its reduced transportation and logistics costs associated with hydrogen delivery. Rising regulatory compliance is pushing demand for clean fuel production facilities that can align with regulations requiring low-sulfur fuels and lower greenhouse gas emissions, helping refineries to meet both local and international standards leading to boost the on-site production demand. Furthermore, increasing clean energy demand from various petrochemical processes boosts the demand for captive production to improve refineries' response time and meet market needs while minimizing storage and handling complexities associated with external hydrogen supply.
Based on process, the steam reformer segment in Asia Pacific petroleum refining hydrogen generation market is set to grow at a CAGR of over 6.5% through 2032, due to its cost-effectiveness, especially when utilizing natural gas as a feedstock. Rising stricter environmental regulations in the Asia Pacific necessitate the reduction of sulfur emissions and greenhouse gases from refineries leading to boost process adoption to produce low sulfur fuels and align with regulations. Increasing innovations in steam reforming technology, including advancements in catalyst development and process optimization to enhance the efficiency and reliability of hydrogen production will stimulate the process penetration.
China petroleum refining hydrogen generation market is anticipated to reach USD 15 billion by 2032. Rising crude oil processing capacities in China are set to increase demand for clean fuel for desulfurization processes to produce low-sulfur gasoline and diesel that comply with its stringent emission standards will uplift the business statistics. Increasing government commitment to promoting green fuel for refinery applications will propel product adoption. For instance, state-owned enterprises such as Sinopec are integrating traditional steam reforming with renewable energy-powered electrolysis to generate hydrogen for refining and petrochemical applications. Furthermore, the country is investing heavily in on-site clean energy production to reduce dependency on external supplies and ensure operational reliability, thereby driving the business landscape.
In the U.S. increasing adoption of low-carbon hydrogen solutions to align with the country’s decarbonization goals will augment the product growth. This trend is driven by the need to comply with federal and state-level regulations, such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which incentivizes refineries to reduce carbon intensity. Expansion of renewable diesel and biofuel production will propel clean fuel demand for feedstock processing and conversion, thereby significantly boosting the industry growth.